Scenario Matrix is a tool used to construct and describe scenarios in
unpredictable situations. It builds and visualizes scenarios based on key
uncertainties and is complemented by other tools that are part of scenario
building and planning. It includes identifying four scenarios, two critical
uncertainties, an influence diagram, and a fact sheet.
Common uses of Scenario Matrix scanning include:
- To design and describe scenarios on the basis of key uncertainties.
When to use it?
Frame: As a tool in scenario planning to
address uncertain and possibly volatile situations.
How to do it?
Create a list of future uncertainties
Select two critical uncertainties that are most impactful and most uncertain
Identify plausible extremes for the future state of each critical
Using the critical uncertainties as axes, plot the four possible scenarios
in a 2x2 matrix
Develop narrative explanations for each scenario
Scenario Matrix requires an appropriate level of
information to identify four scenarios, and critical uncertainties. From there,
to complete a valid matrix a considerable amount of time is needed for those
individual involved in the development.
Pros and Cons
- A logical way to develop scenarios.
- Provides plausible information for consideration of the future.
- Requires considerable investment of time and people.
- Do not guarantee completeness or certainty.